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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

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